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Un salarié produira en 2060 autant que deux salariés aujourd’hui

mardi 17 septembre 2013 par Jean-Jacques Chavigné


Les seuls chiffres du Conseil d’orientation des retraites (Cor) qui sont, aujourd’hui, mis en évidence par notre gouvernement comme par les grands médias, sont ceux du nombre de cotisants rapporté au nombre de retraités. Ce rapport démographique se dégradera : de 1,65 cotisant pour 1 retraité en 2011, il passera à environ 1,35 cotisant pour 1 retraité en 2060. C’est cette dégradation qui justifierait l’allongement de la durée de cotisation.

Dans le même temps cependant, toujours selon le Cor, la productivité du travail doublera : en une heure de travail, en 2060, il sera possible de produire ce qui est produit en 2 heures de travail en 2011. A partir de là, le calcul n’est pas très difficile à faire : 1,35 cotisants en 2060 produira autant que de 2,7 cotisants en 2011. La situation sera donc bien meilleure qu’aujourd’hui.

Pourquoi une donnée aussi fondamentale est-elle systématiquement évacuée des informations fournies par notre gouvernement ou diffusées par les grands médias ? Pourquoi les seuls chiffres du Cor mis en évidence sont-ils ceux qui vont dans le sens des exigences du Medef ?

L’augmentation de la productivité du travail n’est pourtant pas une nouveauté dans notre pays : elle a été multipliée par 9 depuis 1950, selon les chiffres de l’Insee. Une heure de travail permet, aujourd’hui, de produire ce qui était produit en 9 heures en 1949. Comment une donnée économique aussi fondamentale que l’évolution de la productivité du travail peut-elle être évacuée du débat public ?

François Hollande allait beaucoup plus loin que les projections du Cor lorsqu’il annonçait les « 34 plans » destinés à redresser l’industrie française. Il assurait alors : « La troisième révolution industrielle se produira aussi en France [1] » . Le propre d’une « révolution industrielle » est justement d’accélérer l’augmentation de la productivité du travail ? Pourquoi ne pas en tenir compte lorsqu’il s’agit des retraites ? Pourquoi affirmer que le nombre d’années de cotisations doit automatiquement augmenter puisque l’espérance de vie augmente, alors que la hausse de la productivité du travail vide de sens cette affirmation ? Surtout quand une « troisième révolution industrielle » est annoncée.


[1] Denis Cosnard et Cédric Pietralunga : « François Hollande réinvente le colbertisme » Le Monde, 12/09/2013

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