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Enquête sur les paradis fiscaux

La fraude des riches : La richesse cachée des nations

vendredi 14 mars 2014 par Sybille Fasso

 
Gabriel Zucman, normalien, professeur à la London School of Economics et chercheur à l’université de Berkeley, en Californie, spécialiste des paradis fiscaux et élève de Thomas Piketty, publie « La Richesse cachée des nations » (Le Seuil - La République des idées).

Zucman écrit bien et clairement : moi qui suis loin d’être une spécialiste de l’économie, je l’ai lu comme un roman. J’ai le sentiment d’avoir compris et de ressortir mieux armée de cette lecture. On trouve l’introduction et de nombreux compléments sur son site où il précise sa démarche, ses conclusions et les solutions qu’il propose. [1]

Il raconte d’abord la saga de la Suisse des banques, puis l’apparition des autres paradis fiscaux ; suit une évaluation de l’ampleur des patrimoines cachés et de la fraude fiscale. Il conclut par les solutions qu’il propose après analyse des solutions bidon mises en place actuellement.

L’auteur réfute les deux attitudes contradictoires qui évitent de combattre la fraude fiscale : d’une part l’impossibilité d’agir vu la force de la finance et son pouvoir symbolique, d’autre part l’affirmation que tout a déjà été résolu comme le disait N. Sarkozy en septembre 2009 : "Les paradis fiscaux, c’est fini !".

Zucman n’entend pas dans ce livre analyser tous les circuits de l’argent à l’œuvre dans les paradis fiscaux. Il n’analyse pas les combinaisons des multinationales, leurs optimisations fiscales souvent à la limite de la légalité. Il ne s’agit pas non plus d’une étude des circuits carrément mafieux de vente d’armes, de drogues, etc.

Il examine « seulement » les fortunes des particuliers que recèlent les comptes bancaires hors-sol (offshore) des métropoles occidentales, en particulier en Europe et en France.

La première originalité de Zucman réside dans sa méthode.

Elle repose sur une analyse fine des statistiques publiées par les sites officiels des banques et des états [2]. En avril 2009 le sommet du G20 décrète « la fin du secret bancaire » : depuis, les fortunes hors-sol ont progressé de 14% pour atteindre 1800 milliards d’euros en 2013. Les « petits fraudeurs » ne sont certes plus à l’abri depuis quelques années et les banques suisses cherchent à se débarrasser des petits comptes détenus depuis des lustres par des héritiers allemands et français. Mais la diminution du nombre de ces comptes est plus que compensée par la hausse énorme des fonds déposés par les « ultra-riches ».

« Le secret bancaire n’est mort que dans les gazettes mal informées. Le chiffre de 1800 milliards d’euros est sans doute une estimation basse » dit Gabriel Zucman et « 60% des avoirs appartenant à des étrangers sont attribués aux îles Vierges britanniques, au Panama et aux autres territoires où sont domiciliées les sociétés-écrans ». Sur le total des fortunes gérées en Suisse, 1000 milliards d’euros viennent d’Europe : 200 Mrds d’Allemagne, 180 de France, 120 d’Italie, etc. Les placements faits par les banques suisses vont d’abord au Luxembourg pour 600 Mrds, en Irlande 150 Mrds,… L’évasion fiscale en Europe repose sur le trio : îles Vierges, Suisse, Luxembourg.

Comment évaluer la fortune des ultra-riches ?

Zucman estime que 5800Mrds d’euros, c’est-à-dire 8% du total des patrimoines financiers des ménages se trouve dans les paradis fiscaux3 dont près d’un tiers en Suisse (1800Mrds €), le reste dans les autres « paradis » : Singapour, Hong Kong, les Bahamas, les îles Caïmans, le Luxembourg et Jersey. Ces grandes fortunes ne laissent pas tout cet argent « dormir » sur des comptes courants : il alimente les marchés financiers internationaux. Et c’est là que l’on peut voir les anomalies dans les statistiques qui notent les actifs et les dettes des nations entre elles. Gabriel Zucman montre un exemple. Un français ayant un compte clandestin en Suisse achète des actions Google. Cela génère un passif aux États-Unis, rien en Suisse puisque le propriétaire est français, rien en France où la Banque de France ignore tout de ce compte. Il va y avoir alors une anomalie : plus de passifs que d’actifs au niveau mondial, ainsi l’écart actifs/passifs reflète les fortunes détenues hors-sol. On le voit par exemple pour le Luxembourg : la valeur des fonds qui y sont domiciliés s’élève à 2200 Mrds € (début 2013). L’ensemble des fonds luxembourgeois enregistrés à l’actif de tous les pays n’est que 1200 Mrds. Les 1000 Mrds € de différence n’ont pas de propriétaire ! Cela est vrai aussi pour l’Irlande et les îles Caïmans. « L’essentiel du déséquilibre actif-passif mondial vient de là ».

Combien coûte le secret bancaire ?

L’auteur l’estime à 130 Mrds € par an au niveau mondial. Pour l’Europe la fraude serait de 50 Mrds et la France est la plus touchée : 17 Mrds € en 2013, soit quasiment 1% du PIB. Selon les statistiques suisses, les français y détiendraient 180 Mrds € et ils possèderaient à peu près autant dans les autres paradis fiscaux [3]. Au total : 360 Mrds d’euros. En terme de perte de recettes fiscales, cette dissimulation coûterait 9 Mrds € pour l’IRPP, de 5 Mrds € pour l’impôt sur les successions et de 4 Mrds pour l’ISF. « À la fin de 2013 en France, la dette s’élève à 94% du PIB. Sans la fraude des particuliers dans les paradis fiscaux, elle ne serait que de 70%, soit à peine le niveau d’avant la crise de 2008. »

Les erreurs à éviter, l’affaire Cahuzac.

« Il faut tirer les leçons des tentatives passées. Toutes se sont soldées, jusqu’à présent, par de cuisants échecs, pour deux raisons simples : l’absence de contrainte et l’absence de vérification. » L’économiste propose « des sanctions concrètes , à la hauteur des pertes que provoque le secret bancaire, un cadastre financier mondial, et un impôt global sur le capital financier ».

Au sommet du G20 de 2009 qui entend annihiler les paradis fiscaux , l’OCDE juge l’échange international automatique des données des banques « irréaliste », elle met seulement en place « l’échange à la demande ». Cela n’a rien de dissuasif puisqu’on a vu le montant des fortunes étrangères gérées dans les paradis augmenter de 25% depuis lors et l’affaire Cahuzac a montré son inefficacité. Après la révélation de Médiapart, le fisc français fit jouer l’accord d’échange d’informations signé par la Suisse … et la réponse fut négative ! Après, on apprendra que le compte a été transféré à Singapour.

Depuis 2010, les États Unis ont mis en place le dispositif Fatca (Foreign Account Tax Compliance). Ce serait un échange automatique de données entre les banques et l’IRS (Internal Revenue Service, le fisc américain). Il souffre d’un manque de contrainte et de l’absence de vérification pour être réellement efficace. De plus, la plus grande partie des comptes des ultra-riches dans les paradis sont ouverts via des sociétés-écrans, des trusts, des fondations, de façon à couper les liens entre l’argent et ses véritables propriétaires, bien qu’ils en restent maitres et bénéficiaires. Enfin, les États-Unis comptent seulement sur des dénonciations, au demeurant payées fort cher, 104 Millions $ par exemple pour B. Birkenfeld – ancien banquier d’UBS qui a fourni une liste de 19000 noms.

La « directive épargne » de l’UE (depuis juillet 2005) est encore plus inefficace. D’abord l’échange d’informations ne vise que les intérêts et non les dividendes et les capitaux, or les deux tiers des avoirs sont en actions et fonds d’investissement. Ensuite deux pays de l’UE sont traités à part : le Luxembourg et l’Autriche qui conservent leur secret bancaire. Cela ôte toute crédibilité aux demandes de l’UE vis-à-vis des autres paradis fiscaux et paralyse toute avancée vers une imposition des revenus de ces fortunes. Enfin l’imposition forfaitaire à 35% que reversent le Luxembourg et l’Autriche ne s’applique pas aux comptes détenus par des sociétés-écran.

« Le Luxembourg, bien sûr, bloque tout changement ; le texte initial continue à s’appliquer, la fraude prospère en Europe et la dette publique explose. »

Les solutions de Gabriel Zucman

« Un plan concret et réaliste doit s’articuler autour de deux grands principes : contrainte d’une part et vérification de l’autre. »

Les paradis fiscaux ne renonceront pas spontanément à leur omerta, il faut les y forcer. Une coalition de pays usant de la menace de sanctions commerciales sur leurs exportations pourrait les contraindre à renoncer au secret bancaire qui ne profite qu’à une petite minorité. Comme il s’agit de fait d’une concurrence déloyale des banques de ces paradis, l’OMC n’aurait rien à y redire : « les pays qui en sont victimes sont en droit d’imposer des représailles égales au préjudice qu’elles subissent. »

Exclure le Luxembourg de l’UE ? Il a vendu sa souveraineté à la finance : les multinationales ont le droit d’y décider de leur propre taux d’imposition, contraintes réglementaires et obligations légales. « La question mérite d’être posée, car le Luxembourg qui a cofondé l’Union en 1957 n’a plus rien à voir avec celui d’aujourd’hui. (…) Colonie économique de l’industrie financière internationale, le Luxembourg est au cœur de l’évasion fiscale européenne et paralyse la lutte contre ce fléau depuis des décennies. »

Gabriel Zucman propose un cadastre financier mondial : « un registre indiquant qui possède l’ensemble des titres financiers, les actions, les obligations et les parts de fonds d’investissement du monde entier. » Pour lui c’est la première condition pour que les banques se mettent en règle, empêchant ainsi la fraude des ultra-riches. Le mieux, pense-t-il serait d’en confier la tenue au FMI, car des registres existent déjà (Euroclear, Clearstream, etc) mais gérés de façon privée. « Le cadastre est donc la condition nécessaire à toute taxation des fortunes au XXIe siècle. »

Enfin il propose un impôt mondial sur le capital de 2% annuels, prélevé à la source, s’appuyant sur le cadastre et finançant sa mise en place.

La conclusion de Gabriel Zucman me sied : « C’est surtout la lutte des citoyens contre la fausse fatalité de l’évasion et de l’impuissance des nations. »

Notes

[1] Les citations en italique sont tirées du livre de G. Zucman. Ce site détaille tous les calculs, tableaux, graphiques, fruit de quatre années de recherche (thèse de doctorat, EHESS, 2013) http://gabriel-zucman.eu/richesse-cachee/

[2] Depuis 1998, la BNS (Banque nationale suisse) publie tous les mois une statistique sur les avoirs étrangers détenus en Suisse

[3] Thomas Piketty et Gabriel Zucman, « Capital is Back », École d’économie de Paris, 2013, http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/PikettyZucman2013Databook.pdf (en anglais)

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