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Non, les entreprises ne créent pas l’emploi !

mercredi 29 octobre 2014 par Jean-Jacques Chavigné

 
Manuel Valls justifiait son chant d’amour au « business », le 6 octobre à Londres, en affirmant « Ce sont les entreprises qui créent la richesse et donc l’emploi ». Cela peut paraître évident. C’est, pourtant, une erreur particulièrement néfaste. Les entreprises ne créent pas l’emploi, elles se contentent - dans le meilleur des cas - de créer des emplois, ce qui n’est pas du tout la même chose.

Les entreprises créent des emplois, mais dans le cadre d’un jeu à somme nulle

Dans le cadre de la concurrence, les emplois créés par les unes sont perdus par les autres. Au total, dans le meilleur des cas, il n’y a donc pas de création d’emplois supplémentaires. Pourquoi ? Dans son blog du Monde diplomatique, Frédéric Lordon [1] pointe du doigt la réponse du président de la CGPME « ce gros nigaud de Roubaud » qui « avait vendu la mèche » lorsqu’on lui demandait si en échange du pacte de responsabilité, les entreprises étaient prêtes à embaucher et qu’il répondait « encore faudrait-il que les carnets de commande se remplissent ».

Car c’est bien là que git le problème : les carnets de commande ne dépendent pas de chaque entreprise individuelle. Chaque employeur souhaite payer le moins cher possible ses salariés pour augmenter ses « marges » mais souhaite, en même temps, que les entreprises d’à côté augmentent les salaires de leurs employés, pour pouvoir écouler ses produits ou ses services. Et comme tous les employeurs raisonnent de la sorte, il n’est pas difficile de comprendre pourquoi les carnets de commande ne pourront pas se remplir sans intervention de l’État, sans une politique économique active pour agir sur la conjoncture.

Le Medef donne un parfait exemple de l’insigne faiblesse de son point de vue, lorsqu’il déclare « Deux jours fériés supprimés permettraient de faire deux jours de plus sur 225 jours, c’est-à-dire 1 % de travail en plus par salarié, avec à la clé entre 0,5 % et 1 % de PIB en plus ». Le Medef, oublie les carnets de commande : il ne suffit pas de produire, il faut vendre ! Beaucoup d’employeurs le savent, bien sûr, et si deux jours fériés étaient supprimés, ils n’augmenteraient pas pour autant leur production, ils diminueraient le nombre d’heures supplémentaires, mettraient leurs salariés au chômage technique ou (dans les grandes entreprises) licencieraient.

Qui achèterait la très éventuelle production supplémentaire provoquée par la suppression de ces deux jours fériés ? Les consommateurs français ? Certainement pas : la suppression de deux jours fériés ne donneraient pas un euro de plus à la plupart des salariés puisque ces jours fériés sont payés dans de très nombreuses entreprises. Les consommateurs étrangers ? Rien de moins sûr : dans l’Union européenne actuelle, le plus probable serait la course à la diminution des jours fériés dans chaque pays.

L’INSEE, pour sa part, considère que la suppression d’un jour férié dans la semaine pourrait aboutir à une augmentation de la croissance de 0,065 point et de 0,022 point s’il s’agissait d’un samedi. 15 ou 45 fois moins que les chiffres de la fable racontée par le Medef !

Le raisonnement est le même pour le travail du dimanche qui n’aiderait pas plus à remplir les carnets de commande. Ce qu’un consommateur dépenserait le dimanche, il ne le dépenserait pas le lundi. Ce n’est qu’en se plaçant du point de vue d’une seule entreprise (un magasin de bricolage par exemple) que le Medef peut tenir raisonnement aussi borné. Du point de vue des entreprises dans leur ensemble, ce qui serait gagné par l’une serait perdu par l’autre mais les conditions de travail et de vie des salariés auraient, au passage, été sacrifiées.

Les entreprises privées n’investissent pas, aujourd’hui, parce qu’elles n’ont aucune garantie de trouver des débouchés

C’est à l’État d’intervenir pour créer ces débouchés par une politique de l’offre publique (investissements publics et créations d’emplois publics), par une politique d’augmentation des prestations sociales et des salaires (en premier lieu l’augmentation du Smic et la fin du gel du point d’indice dans la Fonction publique). L’inverse de la politique menée par Manuel Valls, qui en rajoutait une louche, en jouant les Margaret Thatcher devant les banquiers londoniens, lorsqu’il affirmait que les allocations chômages sont trop élevées et de trop longue durée, en France.

Accorder 41 milliards d’euros chaque année aux entreprises en comptant sur elles pour investir et créer l’emploi alors qu’elles n’ont aucune garantie que l’augmentation de leur production trouvera un débouché, c’est chercher à remplir le tonneau des Danaïdes. En l’absence d’une telle garantie, une grande partie de ces 41 milliards euros ira gonfler les dividendes et les bulles spéculatives, préparant ainsi la prochaine crise financière, à côté de laquelle celle de 2007-2008 risquerait fort d’apparaître comme un modeste horsd’oeuvre.

« L’emploi, lui, dépend de la conjoncture économique, ce processus social d’ensemble par quoi se forment simultanément revenus, dépenses globales et production » souligne Frédéric Lordon. C’est le domaine privilégié de la politique économique à laquelle, malheureusement, François Hollande a renoncé en acceptant de voir l’économie du même point du vue étriqué que le Medef et en se pliant aux règles de l’Union européenne d’Angela Merkel qui étouffent la demande, l’investissement public, la croissance et empêchent les carnets de commandes des entreprises de se remplir.

Notes

[1] Frédéric Lordon « Les irresponsables du pacte de responsabilité – Les entreprises ne créent pas l’emploi » - 26 février 2014. La pompe à phynance - Les blogs du Diplo.

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