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Front national, « bipartisme » et « tripolarisation » (2e partie)

Portugal, Espagne, Allemagne et Grèce : Bipartisme, quadripartisme, multipartisme

mercredi 27 janvier 2016 par Jean-Jacques Chavigné

 

Front national, « bipartisme » et « tripolarisation » (2e partie) Portugal, Espagne, Allemagne et Grèce : Bipartisme, quadripartisme, multipartisme

Dans ces quatre pays (Portugal, Espagne, Allemagne et Grèce) le système électoral relève de la proportionnelle. Cependant, pour permettre à des majorités de gouvernement de se constituer, la répartition du nombre de sièges à la proportionnelle est plus ou moins encadrée.

Au Portugal

L’élection à la proportionnelle se déroule dans 22 circonscriptions, chacune élisant au moins 2 députés, 47 pour le district de Lisbonne et 39 pour celle de Porto, sur un total de 230. Dans une circonscription élisant 2 députés, le ou les deux partis dominants sont sûrs d’obtenir ces deux élus. Il n’y a pas de minimum légal pour obtenir un ou plusieurs sièges.

De nombreux partis ont des élus au Parlement. À droite : PPD/PSD et CDS/PP. À gauche, le PS, le Bloc des gauches, le parti communiste portugais (PCP) et le PEV (Parti écologiste-Les Verts). Le PAN (Parti pour les animaux) a même lui aussi un siège au parlement.

L’élection législative du 4 octobre et ses retombées illustrent, à la fois, l’existence d’un multipartisme et l’existence de deux camps fondamentaux, la gauche et la droite.

La droite (PSD et PP) s’était regroupée dans une coalition électorale qui a obtenu 38,66 % des suffrages exprimées (un recul de 12 points, dû à la politique d’austérité infligée au Portugal) et 108 députés sur 230. La gauche s’était présentée divisée entre le parti socialiste, la CDU (PC et Verts) et le Bloc de gauche, proche de Podemos.

Le total des voix de gauche l’emportait largement sur celui des voix de droite : 50,54 % contre 38,66 % et 121 députés contre 108. Le PS a obtenu 32,04 % des voix et 85 députés, la CDU 8,3 % des voix et 17 députés, le Bloc de gauche 10,2 % des suffrages.

L’austérité imposée par le gouvernement de Pedro Passos Coelho était cependant passée par là et la gauche, désunie avant l’élection, s’est unie après celle-ci. Une unité inédite, du fait de l’opposition farouche entre le PS et le PCP depuis la révolution des œillets, en 1974.

Le président de la République, un homme de droite, Anibal Cavaco Silva, a essayé d’imposer un gouvernement de droite minoritaire, en reconduisant l’ancien premier ministre, Pedro Passos Coelho. Mais sa manœuvre a échoué, Coelho n’ayant pas réussi à obtenir la majorité devant le Parlement, le mardi 10 novembre. Les trois partis de gauche, PS, BG et CDU sont tombés d’accord sur un programme de gouvernement et ont mis Anibal Cavaco Silva au pied du mur. Le président de la République portugaise, après bien des tergiversations, n’a finalement pas pu faire autrement que se résoudre à confier au dirigeant socialiste, Antonio Costa, la responsabilité de former un gouvernement.

L’élection du Président de la République, le 24 janvier 2016, n’a pas changé la donne, même si la gauche s’y est présentée en ordre dispersé. Le Président portugais a beaucoup moins de pouvoirs que son homologue français, même s’il dispose d’un pouvoir qui peut s’avérer déterminant, celui dissoudre le Parlement. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, un homme de droite mais considéré, surtout, comme un « caméléon » politique a emporté l’élection avec 52,1 % des voix. Il a, en fait, renforcé la position du chef de gouvernement, le socialiste Antonio Costa puisque le candidat qu’il soutenait, Antonio Sampaio da Novoa a recueilli 29,7 % des suffrages, alors que la candidature des barons socialistes, opposés à une alliance avec la gauche de la gauche, celle de Maria de Belem Roseira, est sortie laminée de cette élection avec seulement 4,25 % des suffrages.

En Espagne

Le système électoral est basé sur un scrutin à la proportionnelle, fortement tempéré par le découpage des circonscriptions. Ce découpage avait pour rôle essentiel de maintenir le « bipartisme » issu de la transition à la démocratie, après la dictature de Francisco Franco (1939-1975). Aux législatives de 2015, ce découpage a permis au PP de Manuel Rajoy d’obtenir un député pour 59 000 suffrages obtenus, au PSOE de faire élire un député pour 61 000 suffrages. Par contre, il fallait 75 000 voix pour Podemos et 87 000 pour Ciudadanos.

C’est à la fin des années 1970 également qu’avait été mise en place la « règle automatique », mais non écrite dans la Constitution, selon laquelle le parti arrivé en tête est appelé par le roi à former un gouvernement, même s’il n’obtient qu’une majorité relative.

L’une des trois conditions fixées par Podemos pour participer à un « pacte » gouvernemental est précisément de modifier le système électoral, et de l’inscrire dans la Constitution espagnole. Ses deux autres conditions sont l’inscription renforcée des droits sociaux dans la cette Constitution et la possibilité de mettre en place un système de révocabilité du chef de gouvernement, à mi-mandat.

Les élections régionales et municipales du 24 mai 2015 en Espagne avaient constitué un véritable séisme. Le « bipartisme », qui, depuis la fin de la dictature franquiste et le déclin du parti communiste espagnol (PCE), opposait le parti socialiste espagnol (PSOE) et la droite espagnole (Alliance populaire, puis Parti populaire), avait pris un sérieux coup dans l’aile. Quatre partis ont alors commencé à dominer la vie politique : PP, le PSOE, Podemos et Ciudadanos. Ce dernier est un parti de droite, dont le programme économique est aussi libéral que celui du PPE, mais qui se présente comme un parti « jeune » et « anti-corruption ». Il a reçu l’appui d’un battage médiatique démesuré, pour essayer de combler le trou béant laissé par le PP, considérablement affaibli par la politique d’austérité qu’il mène, en harmonie avec celle de la Commission européenne.

Cependant, malgré l’installation de ce « quadripartisme », l’existence de deux camps fondamentaux, droite et gauche, a permis au camp de gauche de réaliser une certaine unité post-électorale. Le PSOE taxait Podemos de « populiste » et Podemos mettait le PP et le PSOE dans le même sac, celui de « la caste ». Mais, pour garder ou gagner des régions, pour gagner les municipalités de Barcelone, Madrid, Saragosse, Cadix, Podemos et le PSOE ont réussi à s’allier.

Lors des élections législatives du 20 décembre 2015, le PP de Rajoy perdait 3,5 millions de voix, obtenait 28,7 % des suffrages et 183 sièges, le PSOE perdait 1,5 millions de voix, obtenait 22 % et 90 sièges ; Podemos obtenait 20,6 % et 69 sièges ; Ciudadanos 13,9 % et 40 sièges, IU (gauche) 3,7 % et 2 sièges.

Malgré la division initiale et le multipartisme, les deux camps de gauche et de droite, ont commencé à se reformer.

Pedro Sànchez, le dirigeant du PSOE, a annoncé qu’il refusait un gouvernement de « grande coalition » avec le PP. Il considère qu’avec le solide ancrage politique de Podemos, cela constituerait un véritable suicide politique.

La possibilité pour Manuel Rajoy de former un gouvernement disposant d’une majorité relative semble lui être également interdite. Pour obtenir cette majorité relative, il faudrait que Ciudadanos et le PSOE s’abstiennent lors du vote de confiance demandé par un gouvernement Rajoy ou qu’ils acceptent de former un gouvernement de « grande coalition », PP-PSOE-Ciudadanos. Le PSOE a annoncé, non seulement qu’il refuserait de participer à cette « grande coalition » mai qu’il voterait contre un gouvernement du PP. Manuel Rajoy ne devrait donc disposer ni d’une majorité absolue, ni d’une majorité relative.

Tout danger n’est cependant pas écarté car la présidente socialiste de la région d’Andalousie, Susana Diaz, veut profiter du recul considérable du PSOE pour obtenir la tenue d’un congrès extraordinaire de ce parti. Son objectif est de devenir secrétaire générale du PSOE et de mettre en place un gouvernement de « grande coalition » avec la droite. Ce qu’elle fait déjà, en quelque sorte, en Andalousie, puisque le PSOE et Ciudadanos ont conclu, en juin dernier, un accord pour gouverner ensemble cette région.

La possibilité d’un gouvernement de gauche reste pour le moment ouverte. Ce gouvernement, dirigé par Pedro Sanchez, devrait recevoir le soutien d’IU et de Podemos qui a accepté de mettre (temporairement) en sourdine son exigence d’un référendum sur l’indépendance de la Catalogne. IU semble en accord avec cette perspective et Podemos vient de répondre positivement à l’idée d’un gouvernement de toute la gauche, renonçant même à sa demande de disposer de quatre groupes parlementaires (trois étant réservés aux alliances régionales de Podemos, telles que « En Comu Podem » en Catalogne). Cependant, même si cette union se réalisait, il manquerait encore à un tel gouvernement de gauche, le vote d’au moins trois autres députés pour obtenir la majorité relative. Il lui faudrait donc recueillir le soutien d’une partie des partis de la gauche indépendantistes : ERC catalane, EHB basque, CCA-PNC des Canaries. Ce n’est pas encore gagné, mais le rassemblement du camp de gauche a beaucoup progressé.

En Allemagne

La proportionnelle (ayant pour seule limite la nécessité d’obtenir au moins 5 % des suffrages exprimés pour avoir des élus au Bundestag) n’a pas empêché la « grande coalition » entre la CDU/CSU d’Angela Merkel et le SPD.

Aux élections fédérales de septembre 2013, le total des sièges de la gauche (SPD, die Linke, die Grünen) au Bundestag s’élevait à 320 députés, alors que la coalition de droite CDU/CSU n’obtenait que 311 députés. Mais Peer Steinbrück, le candidat du SPD à la chancellerie s’était empressé, le soir même des résultats, de reconnaître la « victoire » d’Angela Merkel. Le SPD était ensuite entré dans une « grande coalition » avec la CDU/CSU.

Malgré l’existence de deux camps fondamentaux, le multipartisme de la gauche ne s’était pas spontanément traduit par l’unité du camp de gauche. Cette unité est toujours une construction, comme le démontrent a contrario les exemples portugais et espagnols.

En Grèce

Les élections législatives grecques sont des élections à la proportionnelle, mais à la proportionnelle « renforcée ». Ce renforcement signifie que le parti (la coalition) arrivé en tête obtient une prime de 50 sièges (sur 300) au Parlement. Cette disposition qui avait été mise en place pour permettre à deux partis clientélistes, l’un de droite, l’autre de gauche (Nouvelle Démocratie et PASOK) de se succéder l’un à l’autre, a finalement permis à Syriza de l’emporter en janvier et septembre 2015.

La nécessité de recueillir au moins 3 % des suffrages exprimés pour siéger au parlement grec a par contre écarté de la Vouli, Unité Populaire, le parti issu de la gauche de Syriza, qui refuse le mémorandum imposé par l’Union européenne.

- Front national, « bipartisme » et « tripolarisation » (1re partie)

La suite de cet article dans les deux prochaines lettres de D&S :

- Deux « camps » fondamentaux : La gauche et la droite

- « Bipolarisation » ou « tripolarisation » ?

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