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Chômage et précarité

Les « modèles » espagnol et italien (Première partie)

mercredi 30 mars 2016 par Jean-Jacques Chavigné

 
Notre camarade Jean-Jacques Chavigné revient sur la question du chômage et sur les prétendus modèles mis en avant en France par les tenants du néo-libéralisme. Cette semaine, ce sera d’abord le cas espagnol (1re partie), la semaine prochaine l’exemple italien.

« Flexibiliser » le marché du travail serait la seule méthode pour en finir avec le chômage et la précarité. Cette assertion est assénée sur tous les tons par la plupart des médias, les économistes néolibéraux, les politiciens de droite, François Hollande et Manuel Valls, sans que jamais ceux qui l’utilisent ne prennent la peine de démontrer en quoi elle reposerait sur des faits avérés.

Le projet de loi El Khomri est la nouvelle forme prise par ce mensonge ordinaire

Essayer de démontrer que « flexibiliser » le marché du travail permettrait de lutter contre le chômage et la précarité est selon les auteurs de cette loi du temps perdu puisqu’il suffit de répéter cette contre-vérité à longueur de journée en espérant qu’elle finisse par passer pour une vérité.

Il suffirait, nous dit- Manuel Valls, de regarder autour de nous et de constater à quel point la France est en retard sur ses voisins. Ceux du nord (l’Allemagne et les Pays-Bas), de l’ouest (le Royaume-Uni) ou du sud (l’Espagne et l’Italie). Dans tous ces pays, soit le chômage est extrêmement bas, soit il est en train de diminuer à grande vitesse. Il ne nous resterait donc qu’à les imiter.

Tout ce château de cartes repose, en premier lieu, sur la méthode de calcul du taux de chômage

Pour être considéré comme demandeur d’emploi, selon le Bureau international du Travail, il suffit d’avoir travaillé au moins une heure au cours de la semaine précédente. Cette méthode de calcul (voir les articles de la Lettre de D&S sur Le chômage et sa courbe) aurait pu avoir un sens il y a 30 ou 40 ans quand la situation était binaire : soit on était au chômage, soit on avait un CDI. Aujourd’hui, cette méthode n’a strictement plus aucun sens. En France, 87 % des embauches se font en CDD et 80 % d’entre eux sont de moins d’un mois. En Allemagne, les « mini-jobs » à 400 euros par mois sont, avec cette méthode, considérés comme de vrais emplois. Au Royaume-Uni, toujours avec la même méthode, les « contrats zéro heure », s’ils ont permis de travailler une heure la semaine précédente, sont considérés comme des emplois décents.

Sans doute Manuel Valls n’avait-il pas vraiment intégré ce que signifiait cette méthode de calcul du chômage, lorsqu’il affirmait : « La précarité, c’est en premier lieu celle des 3,5 millions de personnes sans emploi, un niveau de chômage très supérieur à celui de nos partenaires allemands et britanniques » [1].

Manuel Valls et Myriam El Khomri sont comme des archers qui tirent d’abord leurs flèches et dessinent ensuite leur cible

Ils ont d’abord affirmé que leur but était de lutter contre le chômage et qu’il fallait pour cela accepter plus de « flexibilité » c’est-à-dire plus de précarité en prenant pour « modèles » l’Allemagne, le Royaume-Uni, les Pays-Bas dont le taux de chômage (au sens du BIT) est beaucoup plus bas qu’en France : 10,3 % de la population active au chômage en France, mais seulement 6,5 % au Pays-Bas, 5 % au Royaume-Uni et 4,3 % en Allemagne.

Devant le refus de la jeunesse de subir une précarité accrue, ils n’ont pas pour autant changé de « modèles » ni de projet de loi. Ils se sont contentés de dessiner une nouvelle cible autour de leur flèche, en affirmant que le but premier de leur projet de loi était de lutter contre la précarité des jeunes.

Il leur aurait pourtant suffi de consulter les chiffres de l’OCDE pour constater que la précarité est beaucoup plus importante dans les pays qu’ils prennent pour « modèles » qu’en France.

La part des salariés travaillant moins de 20 heures par semaine représente 5,9 % de l’emploi total en France, 12,4 % en Allemagne, 12,7 % au Royaume-Uni et 21,3 % au Pays-Bas.

Pire, pour ces pourfendeurs de la précarité de la jeunesse, la part des salariés entre 15 et 24 ans, travaillant moins de 20 heures par semaine, est de 9 % en France, de 12,7 % en Allemagne, de 24,2 % au Royaume-Uni et de 50,7 % aux Pays-Bas.

Leurs « modèles » s’usant rapidement, les économistes néolibéraux et les membres de notre gouvernement se sont empressés de sortir deux autres lapins de leurs chapeaux : le « miracle espagnol » et le « Jobs Act » italien.

I - Le « miracle espagnol »

Parler du « miracle espagnol » de l’emploi et nous présenter ce « miracle » comme un « modèle » revient à vouloir faire passer pour champion de natation, une personne qui se noyait mais qui est parvenue à respirer une goulée d’air frais après avoir donné un coup de pied dans le fond de la piscine.

Le premier « miracle » espagnol

Au début des années 2000, l’Espagne était, avec l’Irlande, le meilleur élève du néolibéralisme et de son sanctuaire européen, la Commission de Bruxelles. Cette dernière donnait, déjà, en exemple à tous les pays européens le « miracle économique » espagnol sans se préoccuper de l’énorme bulle immobilière qui était en train de gonfler. Les banques espagnoles accompagnaient le boom immobilier et l’encourageait en accordant des crédits sans vraiment se soucier de la solvabilité des emprunteurs.

L’éclatement de la bulle immobilière

Lorsque la bulle immobilière explosa en 2007, sous l’effet combiné de sa propre dynamique et de la crise des « subprimes » aux États-Unis, les prix de l’immobilier se sont effondrés. Au final, les banques se sont retrouvées avec des monceaux de crédits insolvables et de biens immobiliers invendables, saisis à des propriétaires dans l’incapacité de payer les mensualités de leurs crédits.

Pour sauver les banques espagnoles, la dette publique, qui s’élevait à 37 % du PIB espagnol en 2007, a presque doublé pour atteindre 68,5 % en décembre 2011. La récession économique qui a suivi la crise financière a entraîné une augmentation continue de la dette publique : 93,9 % fin 2013 et 97,7 % fin 2015. Les banques espagnoles se sont retrouvées sous perfusion de l’Union européenne qui leur a accordé 430 milliards d’euros de crédit entre 2008 et 2012.

Au salariat et aux jeunes Espagnols de payer l’addition

C’est aux salariés en activité, aux retraités et à la jeunesse qu’il a été demandé de payer l’addition laissée par les banques et les promoteurs immobiliers.

Le Premier ministre du Parti socialiste espagnol (le PSOE), José Luis Zapatero, a « réformé » le marché du travail, imposé deux plans d’austérité successifs de 10 puis 5 milliards d’euros, en 2010 et 2011, diminué de 5 % les salaires de la fonction publique, gelé l’emploi public et les salaires des fonctionnaires, repoussé l’âge légal du départ à la retraite à 67 ans.

Mariano Rajoy, devenu Premier ministre après la victoire de la droite aux élections législatives en novembre 2011, est allé beaucoup plus loin pour satisfaire les exigences de la Commission européenne qui n’acceptait pas que la dette espagnole atteigne de tels sommets. Il a imposé un plan d’austérité budgétaire de 35 milliards d’euros en 2012, de 43 milliards si l’on inclut le plan de rigueur imposé aux régions autonomes. Il a, lui aussi, « réformé » le marché du travail en permettant à l’employeur de modifier unilatéralement les salaires sans tenir compte des conventions collectives et de licencier un salarié sans avoir d’indemnité de licenciement à verser.

Le principal résultat de ces remèdes de cheval a été une augmentation considérable du chômage. Le taux de chômage, calculé selon la méthode du BIT, s’élevait à 8,1 % de la population active fin 2006. Il atteignait 26,9 % au 1er trimestre 2013.

Le recul du taux de chômage

Fin 2015, le taux de chômage, toujours calculé selon les méthodes du BIT, reculait cependant, et atteignait 20,8 %.

C’est à la « flexibilisation » du marché du travail espagnol que le gouvernement de Manuel Valls et les économistes libéraux attribuent ce recul. Sans le moindre souci du ridicule, ils nous proposent donc de prendre pour exemple un pays dont 21 % de la population active est au chômage !

Les économistes signataires de la Tribune du Monde « Cette réforme est une avancée pour les plus fragiles », le 5 mars 2016, derrière le « prix Nobel » [2] Jean Tirole, en soutien au projet de loi El Khomri, prétendaient qu’« ayant adopté une loi similaire en 2012, l’Espagne a connu un surcroît de 300 000 embauches en CDI dès l’année suivante ». Ce chiffre, le seul exemple concret de cette Tribune, est une invention [3]. Selon Eurostat, en 2013, 77 600 emplois précaires (CDD et intérim) ont été créés alors que 256 200 CDI disparaissaient.

La population active espagnole

Certes, diminuer le taux de chômage de 6 points, semble plus facile à réaliser quand ce taux s’élève à 27 % qu’à 10 % de la population active. Néanmoins ce taux a diminué et il importe de savoir pourquoi.

La première question à se poser est donc celle de savoir si la population active espagnole est restée stable, si elle a augmenté ou si elle a diminué. La diminution de 5 points du taux de chômage rapporté à cette population active n’aura pas le même sens, dans chacune de ces cas de figures.

Depuis le premier trimestre 2013, le nombre de chômeurs a reculé de 1,498 millions mais le nombre d’emplois n’a augmenté que de 1,064 millions. 434 000 chômeurs se sont donc évaporés des statistiques (29 % de la baisse du nombre des chômeurs) entre le 1er trimestre 2013 et la fin de l’année 2015 [4]. Une partie a rejoint le rang des « inactifs » : une proportion plus importante de jeunes a poursuivi ses études ; des chômeurs, découragés, ont renoncé à chercher du travail. Une autre partie a quitté l’Espagne pour chercher du travail ailleurs. La première explication à la diminution du taux de chômage est donc la diminution de la population active espagnole.

L’envol de la précarité

La deuxième question à se poser est celle de savoir ce qui se cache derrière le chiffre de 21 % de la population active au chômage. Suivant la méthode de calcul du BIT, une personne ayant travaillé ne serait-ce qu’une seule heure la semaine de référence n’est pas considérée comme un demandeur d’emploi. Ce taux ne nous renseigne donc en rien sur la nature des emplois créés.

Selon les chiffres de l’INE (l’INSEE espagnole), 525 100 emplois ont été créés en 2015 mais 67,5 % d’entre étaient des emplois précaires, en CDD. Nous voilà très loi des promesses de Manuel Valls de « Sortir d’une société de précarité » grâce à la « flexibilisation » du marché du travail.

La croissance espagnole à l’origine des créations d’emploi

Le PIB espagnol a augmenté de 2,8 % en 2014 et de 3,2 % en 2015. Cependant, contrairement à ce que prétendent les néolibéraux, cette croissance n’a rien à voir avec l’austérité imposée à l’Espagne. C’est au contraire, l’arrêt de la politique d’austérité de Manuel Rajoy, dans la perspective des législatives de fin 2015, qui explique cette reprise économique.

Dès que la conjoncture économique se retournera, ces emplois subiront le même sort que les 2,5 millions d’emplois précaires créés durant le premier « miracle espagnol » entre 2000 et 2008 et qui avaient rapidement disparu au cours de la crise économique qui avait suivi la crise financière de 2007-2008.

Ce retournement est d’autant plus prévisible que les exportations ne sont pas suffisantes pour tirer la croissance. Malgré la baisse du « coût du travail », elles sont toujours inférieures d’un point à celles d’avant 2007. La croissance est donc tributaire de la consommation intérieure, limitée par la nature des emplois créés qui sont, non seulement précaires, mais aussi peu rémunérés.

La sanction des élections législatives de 2015

Aux élections législatives de décembre 2015, le parti de droite de Manuel Rajoy (le PP) a perdu 3,6 millions de voix et son dirigeant a dû renoncer à former un gouvernement. Le Parti socialiste espagnol (le PSOE) a, quant à lui, continué à payer sa politique d’agression contre les droits des salariés en 2010-2011. Il a perdu 1,5 million de voix.

Visiblement, le « miracle » espagnol n’a pas été du goût de tous les Espagnols.

Nous publierons la semaine prochaine la deuxième partie de cet article : le « Jobs Act » italien de Matteo Renzi

Notes

[1] Manuel Valls « Sortir d’une société de précarité » - AFP - 15/03/2016/

[2] Il n’y a pas de "prix Nobel d’économie". Dès sa création, en 1969, le « prix de la Banque centrale de Suède en sciences économiques en mémoire d’Alfred Nobel » a volontairement été confondu avec les prestigieux « prix Nobel » de physique, chimie… Le but de l’opération était de faire passer la "sciences économiques" pour une science naturelle, au même titre que la physique ou la chimie, alors qu’il s’agit d’une science sociale, d’une économie politique.

[3] Michel Husson - Site à l’encontre - Flexibilité du travail, arnaque néolibérale (I).

[4] Voir Romaric Godin Espagne : les dessous du « miracle » espagnol - La Tribune - 01/02/2016.

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