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Chmage et prcarit

Les « modles » espagnol et italien (Premire partie)

mercredi 30 mars 2016 par Jean-Jacques Chavign

 
Notre camarade Jean-Jacques Chavign revient sur la question du chmage et sur les prtendus modles mis en avant en France par les tenants du no-libralisme. Cette semaine, ce sera d’abord le cas espagnol (1re partie), la semaine prochaine l’exemple italien.

« Flexibiliser » le march du travail serait la seule mthode pour en finir avec le chmage et la prcarit. Cette assertion est assne sur tous les tons par la plupart des mdias, les conomistes nolibraux, les politiciens de droite, Franois Hollande et Manuel Valls, sans que jamais ceux qui l’utilisent ne prennent la peine de dmontrer en quoi elle reposerait sur des faits avrs.

Le projet de loi El Khomri est la nouvelle forme prise par ce mensonge ordinaire

Essayer de dmontrer que « flexibiliser » le march du travail permettrait de lutter contre le chmage et la prcarit est selon les auteurs de cette loi du temps perdu puisqu’il suffit de rpter cette contre-vrit longueur de journe en esprant qu’elle finisse par passer pour une vrit.

Il suffirait, nous dit- Manuel Valls, de regarder autour de nous et de constater quel point la France est en retard sur ses voisins. Ceux du nord (l’Allemagne et les Pays-Bas), de l’ouest (le Royaume-Uni) ou du sud (l’Espagne et l’Italie). Dans tous ces pays, soit le chmage est extrmement bas, soit il est en train de diminuer grande vitesse. Il ne nous resterait donc qu’ les imiter.

Tout ce chteau de cartes repose, en premier lieu, sur la mthode de calcul du taux de chmage

Pour tre considr comme demandeur d’emploi, selon le Bureau international du Travail, il suffit d’avoir travaill au moins une heure au cours de la semaine prcdente. Cette mthode de calcul (voir les articles de la Lettre de D&S sur Le chmage et sa courbe) aurait pu avoir un sens il y a 30 ou 40 ans quand la situation tait binaire : soit on tait au chmage, soit on avait un CDI. Aujourd’hui, cette mthode n’a strictement plus aucun sens. En France, 87 % des embauches se font en CDD et 80 % d’entre eux sont de moins d’un mois. En Allemagne, les « mini-jobs » 400 euros par mois sont, avec cette mthode, considrs comme de vrais emplois. Au Royaume-Uni, toujours avec la mme mthode, les « contrats zro heure », s’ils ont permis de travailler une heure la semaine prcdente, sont considrs comme des emplois dcents.

Sans doute Manuel Valls n’avait-il pas vraiment intgr ce que signifiait cette mthode de calcul du chmage, lorsqu’il affirmait : « La prcarit, c’est en premier lieu celle des 3,5 millions de personnes sans emploi, un niveau de chmage trs suprieur celui de nos partenaires allemands et britanniques » [1].

Manuel Valls et Myriam El Khomri sont comme des archers qui tirent d’abord leurs flches et dessinent ensuite leur cible

Ils ont d’abord affirm que leur but tait de lutter contre le chmage et qu’il fallait pour cela accepter plus de « flexibilit » c’est--dire plus de prcarit en prenant pour « modles » l’Allemagne, le Royaume-Uni, les Pays-Bas dont le taux de chmage (au sens du BIT) est beaucoup plus bas qu’en France : 10,3 % de la population active au chmage en France, mais seulement 6,5 % au Pays-Bas, 5 % au Royaume-Uni et 4,3 % en Allemagne.

Devant le refus de la jeunesse de subir une prcarit accrue, ils n’ont pas pour autant chang de « modles » ni de projet de loi. Ils se sont contents de dessiner une nouvelle cible autour de leur flche, en affirmant que le but premier de leur projet de loi tait de lutter contre la prcarit des jeunes.

Il leur aurait pourtant suffi de consulter les chiffres de l’OCDE pour constater que la prcarit est beaucoup plus importante dans les pays qu’ils prennent pour « modles » qu’en France.

La part des salaris travaillant moins de 20 heures par semaine reprsente 5,9 % de l’emploi total en France, 12,4 % en Allemagne, 12,7 % au Royaume-Uni et 21,3 % au Pays-Bas.

Pire, pour ces pourfendeurs de la prcarit de la jeunesse, la part des salaris entre 15 et 24 ans, travaillant moins de 20 heures par semaine, est de 9 % en France, de 12,7 % en Allemagne, de 24,2 % au Royaume-Uni et de 50,7 % aux Pays-Bas.

Leurs « modles » s’usant rapidement, les conomistes nolibraux et les membres de notre gouvernement se sont empresss de sortir deux autres lapins de leurs chapeaux : le « miracle espagnol » et le « Jobs Act » italien.

I - Le « miracle espagnol »

Parler du « miracle espagnol » de l’emploi et nous prsenter ce « miracle » comme un « modle » revient vouloir faire passer pour champion de natation, une personne qui se noyait mais qui est parvenue respirer une goule d’air frais aprs avoir donn un coup de pied dans le fond de la piscine.

Le premier « miracle » espagnol

Au dbut des annes 2000, l’Espagne tait, avec l’Irlande, le meilleur lve du nolibralisme et de son sanctuaire europen, la Commission de Bruxelles. Cette dernire donnait, dj, en exemple tous les pays europens le « miracle conomique » espagnol sans se proccuper de l’norme bulle immobilire qui tait en train de gonfler. Les banques espagnoles accompagnaient le boom immobilier et l’encourageait en accordant des crdits sans vraiment se soucier de la solvabilit des emprunteurs.

L’clatement de la bulle immobilire

Lorsque la bulle immobilire explosa en 2007, sous l’effet combin de sa propre dynamique et de la crise des « subprimes » aux tats-Unis, les prix de l’immobilier se sont effondrs. Au final, les banques se sont retrouves avec des monceaux de crdits insolvables et de biens immobiliers invendables, saisis des propritaires dans l’incapacit de payer les mensualits de leurs crdits.

Pour sauver les banques espagnoles, la dette publique, qui s’levait 37 % du PIB espagnol en 2007, a presque doubl pour atteindre 68,5 % en dcembre 2011. La rcession conomique qui a suivi la crise financire a entran une augmentation continue de la dette publique : 93,9 % fin 2013 et 97,7 % fin 2015. Les banques espagnoles se sont retrouves sous perfusion de l’Union europenne qui leur a accord 430 milliards d’euros de crdit entre 2008 et 2012.

Au salariat et aux jeunes Espagnols de payer l’addition

C’est aux salaris en activit, aux retraits et la jeunesse qu’il a t demand de payer l’addition laisse par les banques et les promoteurs immobiliers.

Le Premier ministre du Parti socialiste espagnol (le PSOE), Jos Luis Zapatero, a « rform » le march du travail, impos deux plans d’austrit successifs de 10 puis 5 milliards d’euros, en 2010 et 2011, diminu de 5 % les salaires de la fonction publique, gel l’emploi public et les salaires des fonctionnaires, repouss l’ge lgal du dpart la retraite 67 ans.

Mariano Rajoy, devenu Premier ministre aprs la victoire de la droite aux lections lgislatives en novembre 2011, est all beaucoup plus loin pour satisfaire les exigences de la Commission europenne qui n’acceptait pas que la dette espagnole atteigne de tels sommets. Il a impos un plan d’austrit budgtaire de 35 milliards d’euros en 2012, de 43 milliards si l’on inclut le plan de rigueur impos aux rgions autonomes. Il a, lui aussi, « rform » le march du travail en permettant l’employeur de modifier unilatralement les salaires sans tenir compte des conventions collectives et de licencier un salari sans avoir d’indemnit de licenciement verser.

Le principal rsultat de ces remdes de cheval a t une augmentation considrable du chmage. Le taux de chmage, calcul selon la mthode du BIT, s’levait 8,1 % de la population active fin 2006. Il atteignait 26,9 % au 1er trimestre 2013.

Le recul du taux de chmage

Fin 2015, le taux de chmage, toujours calcul selon les mthodes du BIT, reculait cependant, et atteignait 20,8 %.

C’est la « flexibilisation » du march du travail espagnol que le gouvernement de Manuel Valls et les conomistes libraux attribuent ce recul. Sans le moindre souci du ridicule, ils nous proposent donc de prendre pour exemple un pays dont 21 % de la population active est au chmage !

Les conomistes signataires de la Tribune du Monde « Cette rforme est une avance pour les plus fragiles », le 5 mars 2016, derrire le « prix Nobel » [2] Jean Tirole, en soutien au projet de loi El Khomri, prtendaient qu’« ayant adopt une loi similaire en 2012, l’Espagne a connu un surcrot de 300 000 embauches en CDI ds l’anne suivante ». Ce chiffre, le seul exemple concret de cette Tribune, est une invention [3]. Selon Eurostat, en 2013, 77 600 emplois prcaires (CDD et intrim) ont t crs alors que 256 200 CDI disparaissaient.

La population active espagnole

Certes, diminuer le taux de chmage de 6 points, semble plus facile raliser quand ce taux s’lve 27 % qu’ 10 % de la population active. Nanmoins ce taux a diminu et il importe de savoir pourquoi.

La premire question se poser est donc celle de savoir si la population active espagnole est reste stable, si elle a augment ou si elle a diminu. La diminution de 5 points du taux de chmage rapport cette population active n’aura pas le mme sens, dans chacune de ces cas de figures.

Depuis le premier trimestre 2013, le nombre de chmeurs a recul de 1,498 millions mais le nombre d’emplois n’a augment que de 1,064 millions. 434 000 chmeurs se sont donc vapors des statistiques (29 % de la baisse du nombre des chmeurs) entre le 1er trimestre 2013 et la fin de l’anne 2015 [4]. Une partie a rejoint le rang des « inactifs » : une proportion plus importante de jeunes a poursuivi ses tudes ; des chmeurs, dcourags, ont renonc chercher du travail. Une autre partie a quitt l’Espagne pour chercher du travail ailleurs. La premire explication la diminution du taux de chmage est donc la diminution de la population active espagnole.

L’envol de la prcarit

La deuxime question se poser est celle de savoir ce qui se cache derrire le chiffre de 21 % de la population active au chmage. Suivant la mthode de calcul du BIT, une personne ayant travaill ne serait-ce qu’une seule heure la semaine de rfrence n’est pas considre comme un demandeur d’emploi. Ce taux ne nous renseigne donc en rien sur la nature des emplois crs.

Selon les chiffres de l’INE (l’INSEE espagnole), 525 100 emplois ont t crs en 2015 mais 67,5 % d’entre taient des emplois prcaires, en CDD. Nous voil trs loi des promesses de Manuel Valls de « Sortir d’une socit de prcarit » grce la « flexibilisation » du march du travail.

La croissance espagnole l’origine des crations d’emploi

Le PIB espagnol a augment de 2,8 % en 2014 et de 3,2 % en 2015. Cependant, contrairement ce que prtendent les nolibraux, cette croissance n’a rien voir avec l’austrit impose l’Espagne. C’est au contraire, l’arrt de la politique d’austrit de Manuel Rajoy, dans la perspective des lgislatives de fin 2015, qui explique cette reprise conomique.

Ds que la conjoncture conomique se retournera, ces emplois subiront le mme sort que les 2,5 millions d’emplois prcaires crs durant le premier « miracle espagnol » entre 2000 et 2008 et qui avaient rapidement disparu au cours de la crise conomique qui avait suivi la crise financire de 2007-2008.

Ce retournement est d’autant plus prvisible que les exportations ne sont pas suffisantes pour tirer la croissance. Malgr la baisse du « cot du travail », elles sont toujours infrieures d’un point celles d’avant 2007. La croissance est donc tributaire de la consommation intrieure, limite par la nature des emplois crs qui sont, non seulement prcaires, mais aussi peu rmunrs.

La sanction des lections lgislatives de 2015

Aux lections lgislatives de dcembre 2015, le parti de droite de Manuel Rajoy (le PP) a perdu 3,6 millions de voix et son dirigeant a d renoncer former un gouvernement. Le Parti socialiste espagnol (le PSOE) a, quant lui, continu payer sa politique d’agression contre les droits des salaris en 2010-2011. Il a perdu 1,5 million de voix.

Visiblement, le « miracle » espagnol n’a pas t du got de tous les Espagnols.

Nous publierons la semaine prochaine la deuxime partie de cet article : le « Jobs Act » italien de Matteo Renzi

Notes

[1] Manuel Valls « Sortir d’une socit de prcarit » - AFP - 15/03/2016/

[2] Il n’y a pas de "prix Nobel d’conomie". Ds sa cration, en 1969, le « prix de la Banque centrale de Sude en sciences conomiques en mmoire d’Alfred Nobel » a volontairement t confondu avec les prestigieux « prix Nobel » de physique, chimie… Le but de l’opration tait de faire passer la "sciences conomiques" pour une science naturelle, au mme titre que la physique ou la chimie, alors qu’il s’agit d’une science sociale, d’une conomie politique.

[3] Michel Husson - Site l’encontre - Flexibilit du travail, arnaque nolibrale (I).

[4] Voir Romaric Godin Espagne : les dessous du « miracle » espagnol - La Tribune - 01/02/2016.

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 Les - mod-les - espagnol et italien (Premi-re partie) 18 février 2017, par Desmond Taylor
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–„ž‹‚ƒƒƒˆ‚’ –‚Š™ „ 交 ›‹  € —˜‚ƒƒƒˆ‹  –™‚’ –‚Š™ ‚‰€ ‚ƒƒƒˆ‚ˆ‚Š » „ –™ ‚‰• ‚‚‰ „ ™€‚ » 価 ‚‚„ — „€ ‚ƒ« ƒ ƒ‚ƒ ‹ € € ”年•° 25年 »Š€ 米› € œ€’š„ ™ ŠŽ‡€ ‚‚ƒ•‚ƒ« ƒˆ‚ƒ‚°ƒ«  ›€ ”年•°€ 20年‹度€ Ÿ’ »˜‹ˆ‘€ † —€ –„ž‹‚ƒƒƒˆ‹  –„ž‹Œ–粧‚ »ƒƒƒˆ‚ƒƒƒˆ‚’’Ž » — ‚‚€ ‚ƒƒƒˆ‚’–工 ™‚‹ 注„ Œ… ™€‚‚ƒƒƒˆ‹  † —… ‚„ ‰ „ ‹Ÿ « – ‹‚‰€ † € € ”年•° Œ›“•°‹˜ — € ‹ Ÿ› ›ž復 Œ›š„ ‚‰O« €‚ — ‹ —€ € ”年•°‚’ » ° ™›š„ € Šžœ Œ ‚Œ » ‚‚Š ›‚“ € —… »” Œ„„ «  ‚‹ ‹‚‚€ ‚ƒƒƒˆ‹  € ‚ »ƒƒƒˆ ‚‚ƒ™‚ƒˆ‚’œŠ›ˆ 形 製€  •‚Œ Ÿ –™ € ‡‘‰ –™ ™€‚ƒˆ‚ƒ‚„‚ƒ« ƒ ƒ‚ƒ ‹ € 大 中«  Œ • „ ™€‚‡‘ž –™ ‚‰表 ‚„ˆ‡‚Š ‚’—–™‚’– — • ‚’˜止 ™‚‹ € ”年•° « Šžœ Œ ‚‚Š ™ Œ€ ‚ƒƒƒˆ –™ 表 ‚’—… — ‚‚寿‘  » ›‚“€‚—…‚’ ™‚‹ € 表 太™…‰ « –š€ 赤–€  赤–…‰ 影Ÿ‚’Ž‹ • › ™ Œ€ –„ž‹Œ–粧‚ƒƒƒˆ € € ˆ2mm Žš •‰ € „˜‚™ ™€‚
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