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Chômage et précarité

Les « modèles » espagnol et italien (Deuxième partie)

lundi 4 avril 2016 par Jean-Jacques Chavigné

 
Nous publions cette semaine la deuxième partie d’un article de notre camarade Jean-Jacques Chavigné. La semaine dernière, il s’agissait du prétendu modèle espagnol ; cette fois-ci c’est au tour du cas italien.

II- Le « Jobs Act » italien de Matteo Renzi

Les deux principales mesures de cette loi

Le « Jobs Act », voté le 10 décembre 2014 et entré en vigueur en mars 2015, a d’abord supprimé la possibilité qu’avait un salarié italien d’être réintégré dans l’entreprise dans laquelle il travaillait lorsque son licenciement était jugé abusif. C’était un droit plus protecteur, garanti par l’article 18 du Code du travail italien, que le droit français, qui n’oblige pas l’employeur à réintégrer un salarié licencié abusivement, mais seulement à « compenser » ce licenciement par une indemnité déterminée par le juge. Avec le « Jobs Act », l’article 18 a été supprimé. Il suffira désormais, en Italie, à l’employeur de verser une indemnité pour licencier un salarié. Le salarié pourrait, cependant, être réintégré, s’il était victime de « discrimination ». Mais c’est au salarié d’en apporter la « preuve matérielle » ; cette possibilité de réintégration n’a donc qu’une portée pratique très limitée.

L’autre innovation déterminante de la loi de Matteo Renzi est la création d’un CDI « à protection croissante ». Le licenciement est facilité pendant les trois premières années suivant l’embauche, mais des indemnités croissantes (de 4 à 24 mois de salaire) en fonction de l’ancienneté dans l’entreprise sont versées en cas de licenciement.

Le « Jobs Act » apporte d’autres changements au droit du travail italien

Certains de ces changements sont positifs.

Les contrats de collaboration, souvent utilisés pour transformer en relations commerciales des relations salariales, sont supprimés et transformés en contrats de travail à partir du 1er janvier 2016. La durée d’indemnisation de l’assurance chômage est portée à deux ans (contre 12 mois auparavant).

Le « Jobs Act » prévoit également l’instauration d’un salaire minimum « à titre expérimental ». Mais rien n’a été fait concrètement. L’Italie reste donc l’un des derniers États européens à ne pas disposer d’un salaire minimum.

D’autres changements le sont beaucoup moins.

Le « Jobs Act » a également assoupli le recours aux « bons du travail », aux « vouchers emploi », une forme de chèque emploi qui permet à un employeur de faire occuper un même poste de travail par plusieurs salariés successifs, payés en « bons du travail ». Une sorte de quintessence de la précarité. Le plafond de revenu annuel payé au moyen de ces bons a été rehaussé de 5 000 à 7 000 euros.

Les décrets de 2014 et la loi de finances pour 2015

Les décrets de 2014, du ministre du Travail, Giuliano Poletti, ont permis aux entreprises d’infliger à un même salarié 5 CDD successifs, pendant 36 mois (12 mois auparavant).

La Loi de finances pour 2015 supprime les cotisations sociales pendant 3 ans sur les nouveaux contrats CDI à protection croissante, dans la limite de 8 060 euros par an pour les nouveaux embauchés entre le 1er janvier et le 31 décembre 2015, s’ils n’ont pas été employés en CDI dans les six mois précédents leur embauche.

L’emploi progresse, modestement, depuis le début de l’année 2015

Le 9 mars 2016, Matteo Renzi annonçait la création de 764 000 CDI à « protection croissante ». Le 25 août 2015, son ministre du Travail déclarait qu’entre janvier et juillet 2015, 420 325 contrats en CDI avaient été signés. Le 26 août, il devait démentir l’information et reconnaître que seulement 115 897 CDI avaient été signés. Quatre fois moins que ce qu’il avait annoncé [1].

Selon l’ISTAT (l’INSEE italienne), entre janvier 2015 et janvier 2016, le nombre d’actifs occupés augmentait de 229 000. Le terme d’ « actifs occupés » peut surprendre mais, comme pour l’INSEE en France, les demandeurs d’emplois, recensés par les statistiques, font partie de la population active. Le nombre de salariés augmentait de 377 000 alors que le nombre des indépendants diminuaient de 148 000, afin d’anticiper la suppression, le 1er janvier 2016, des « contrats de collaboration ». Les CDI constituaient 87 % des nouveaux emplois salariés : 328 000 pour un total de 377 000.

Selon l’économiste de l’OFCE, Céline Antonin [2« Le nombre de salariés en CDI est revenu à 22,6 millions, aux niveaux de 2009 (…), quant à l’emploi total, s’il ne revient pas encore à son niveau d’avant-crise, la baisse de 2012-2014 est annulée ».

La raison essentielle de l’augmentation des nouveaux CDI : les subventions

L’effet d’aubaine a joué à plein. De nombreuses entreprises ont différé les embauches qu’elles avaient prévues en 2014 pour bénéficier des exonérations de cotisations sociales annoncées en 2015. Il n’est donc pas étonnant que le nombre d’embauches en 2015 soit nettement supérieur à celui de 2014. Les exonérations sociales prévues par le « Jobs Act » ont à la fois fait diminuer le nombre d’embauches en 2014 et fait augmenter celui de 2015.

L’effet de substitution des emplois en CDD par les nouveaux CDI à protection croissante a également joué un grand rôle. De très nombreux CDD ont été transformés en nouveaux CDI pour bénéficier des exonérations de cotisations sociales.

L’emploi a progressé en Italie, mais rien n’est réglé quant à la nature de ces nouveaux emplois : sont-ils durables ou précaires ?

Ce qui explique le regain de l’emploi en CDI, ce n’est pas la « flexibilisation » du marché du travail liée à la suppression de l’article 18 du Code du travail italien. C’est, avant tout, les exonérations de cotisations sociales mises en place pour une durée de 3 ans par le « Jobs Act ».

Avant de vanter la pérennité des nouveaux CDI, il faudra donc attendre trois ans pour voir combien de salariés embauchés en CDI « à protection croissante » seront licenciés une fois que la poule aux œufs d’or de l’exonération des cotisations sociales aura disparu, et combien seront réembauchés en CDD. Les entreprises, une fois empochées les exonérations de cotisations sociales, n’auront, en effet, aucun intérêt à laisser croître la protection de leurs salariés embauchés avec ce type de contrat. Le risque est donc particulièrement élevé de voir la « sécurité » du « nouveau CDI » disparaître en ne laissant qu’une « flexibilité » accrue, liée à la suppression de l’article 18 du Code du travail italien.

La diminution du taux de chômage

Le nombre de chômeurs a reculé de 169 000 en 2015 et le taux de chômage (au sens du BIT) a diminué, au cours de la même année, de 12,2 à 11,5 % de la population active.

Ce recul est, cependant, très relatif. En 2007, l’Italie ne comptait que 1,46 million de chômeurs (toujours au sens du BIT). Ce nombre a culminé en janvier 2014 avec 3,26 millions de chômeurs. Une hausse de 1,8 million, donc. Au cours des deux dernières années, la baisse du nombre de chômeurs n’a été que de 304 000. C’est donc seulement 1/6e des destructions d’emplois, provoquées par la crise financière de 2007-2008 et la crise économique qui s’en est suivie, qui a été comblé. Comme le souligne Romaric Godin [3] « C’est un rythme qui n’a rien d’exceptionnel : s’il se poursuit, on reviendra au niveau de 2007… en 2020 ».

Comment expliquer ce recul (modeste) du chômage ?

La première explication, la plus déterminante, est l’augmentation du nombre d’emplois mais, malgré les cris de victoire de Matteo Renzi, il serait tout à fait présomptueux de prétendre qu’il s’agit d’emplois durables.

La deuxième explication est la stagnation de la population active qui a amplifié le mouvement de baisse du taux de chômage liée aux créations d’emplois. Si la population active stagne, il est plus facile, comme en Espagne, de faire régresser le taux de chômage calculé en fonction de cette population active. C’est bien ce qui s’est produit. Entre janvier 2015 et janvier 2016, le nombre d’inactifs a diminué plus rapidement que celui des chômeurs : 242 00 contre 169 000. Il existe donc bien un chômage caché que l’on ne retrouve pas dans les statistiques des demandeurs d’emplois. Ce sont des personnes qui, découragées, ne cherchent même plus un emploi et ne se déclarent plus comme demandeurs d’emploi lors des enquêtes réalisées pour le compte du BIT. De nombreux nouveaux diplômés, également, sont de plus en plus nombreux, chaque année, à quitter l’Italie pour trouver un travail.

La troisième explication est la reprise de la croissance. Certes, cette croissance était modeste (+ 0,6 % en 2015), mais elle rompait avec la croissance négative des années précédentes : - 2,8 % en 2012, - 2,8% en 2012, - 1,7 % en 2013, - 0,4 % en 2014. C’est, contrairement à toutes les affirmations des néolibéraux, le relâchement de la contrainte budgétaire qui a permis cette reprise et donc, en partie, le reflux du chômage.

La chute de la natalité italienne : un signe du peu d’espérance en l’avenir des jeunes générations

Pour la première fois en Italie, les naissances sont tombées en 2015 sous le seuil psychologique des 500 000. Pour la première fois depuis 1919, la population de la péninsule a diminué l’année dernière. Selon les prévisions de l’ISTAT, pas plus de 495 000 nouveaux-nés y verront le jour en 2016. 8 naissances pour mille habitants, contre 10 naissances pour mille dans l’Union européenne [4].

La précarité économique et la vision de l’avenir des jeunes Italiens ne sont sans doute pas les seuls facteurs qui expliquent ce phénomène, ils sont néanmoins parmi les plus déterminants. Il ne semble pas que les cris de victoire de Matteo Renzi et son annonce de la fin de la précarité pour les jeunes aient véritablement été pris au sérieux par les intéressés.

En Allemagne, au Royaume-Uni, en France, en Espagne ou en Italie, il n’y a aucun lien avéré entre la « rigidité » du marché du travail et l’emploi

Pour l’économiste Michel Husson, l’indicateur synthétique de « rigidité » de l’OCDE, l’Employement protection legislation (EPL), montre qu’il n’existe aucun lien entre la « rigidité » du marché du travail et la variation du taux d’emploi : « Des pays supposés « rigides » comme la France ou la Belgique ont des résultats analogues à ceux de pays très « flexibles » comme la Nouvelle-Zélande et les Etats-Unis ou le Canada. En sens inverse, des pays dont le degré de « rigidité » est comparable peuvent avoir de bonnes performances (Pologne, Allemagne) ou de très mauvaises (Espagne, Grèce) » [5].

En France, si les économistes néolibéraux, la droite, François Hollande et Manuel Valls affirment le contraire, sans avancer la moindre preuve de ce qu’ils avancent, c’est parce qu’ils poursuivent un tout autre objectif : augmenter les marges bénéficiaires des entreprises et la part des profits dans la répartition de la richesse nationale. Après quatre ans de politique néolibérale, de mai 2012 à mars 2016, qui n’a atteint aucun des objectifs qu’elle affirmait poursuivre, il faut bien finir par se rendre à l’évidence.

Non seulement la dette publique n’a pas diminué mais elle frôle maintenant les 100 % du PIB ; la croissance atone est toujours incapable de faire diminuer le chômage. Depuis mai 2012 et pour la France entière, le nombre de chômeurs de la catégorie A a augmenté de 688 500 (de 3 163 900 à 3 852 400). Dans le même temps, le total des catégories A, B, C, D et E s’est accru de 1 236 900 (de 5 257 200 à 6 494 100).

Un seul objectif, non avoué, a été atteint : la marge bénéficiaire des entreprises a regagné son niveau d’avant la crise, même si le Medef exige toujours plus. Quelle autre explication donner à l’obstination de François Hollande à poursuivre et accélérer une politique qui n’a fait qu’éloigner notre pays des objectifs qu’il affirmait vouloir atteindre ?

Notes

[1] Maria Fana, doctorante en économie à Sciences Po Paris « Jobs Act : les mensonges du ministre du Travail italien » - Blog des Économistes atterrés sur Libération - 11 janvier 2016

[2] Le Jobs Act de Matteo Renzi : un optimisme très mesuré, Blog OFCE, 9 mars 2016

[3] Italie : le "Jobs Act" est-il une recette miracle ?, La Tribune, 9 mars 2016

[4] Olivier Tosseri (Correspondant à Rome) « Les Italiens, un peuple en voie d’extinction  » - Les Échos - 12/01/2016.

[5] Marché du travail. Les atterrantes propositions des économistes, l’Humanité, 24 mars 2016

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